According to @CryptoMichNL, the first days of the month are usually bearish, which adds a downside bias near-term for risk assets, source: @CryptoMichNL. According to @CryptoMichNL, quantitative tightening has been reduced and its impact will take time to filter through liquidity and markets, source: @CryptoMichNL. According to @CryptoMichNL, this week’s focus is U.S. unemployment data, which he views as the primary trigger for whether the Fed deems current rate cuts sufficient, with labor conditions outweighing inflation in the reaction function, source: @CryptoMichNL. According to @CryptoMichNL, if unemployment rises more than expected, recession concerns will intensify and QE becomes likely, shifting the policy stance from QT to QE, source: @CryptoMichNL. According to @CryptoMichNL, markets have been volatile and have priced in several events that are very likely to unfold in December, making the upcoming data critical for positioning, source: @CryptoMichNL.

According to @charliebilello, US initial jobless claims have fallen to their lowest since August, signaling fewer new unemployment insurance filings and an improving near-term backdrop (source: @charliebilello, X, Nov 28, 2025). He notes that while the labor market has been cooling, this print is a good sign and in a recession claims would be trending higher, suggesting the current move is not recessionary (source: @charliebilello, X, Nov 28, 2025). For traders, the author’s non-recessionary read on claims reduces immediate recession signaling and can underpin risk appetite in rate‑sensitive risk assets, including BTC and ETH, when positioning around macro data (source: @charliebilello, X, Nov 28, 2025). A short video overview from the author provides additional context on the claims trend (source: @charliebilello, YouTube link shared on X, Nov 28, 2025).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, a composite of leading macro surveys he computed indicates Bitcoin (BTC) is currently pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since 2022 and 2020, effectively a recessionary growth environment (source: @Andre_Dragosch). According to @Andre_Dragosch, this means a large share of bad macro news is already in the price, creating an asymmetric risk-reward setup if growth expectations recover (source: @Andre_Dragosch). According to @Andre_Dragosch, preceding monetary stimulus points to accelerating global growth into 2026, implying potential upside if survey-based expectations inflect higher (source: @Andre_Dragosch). According to @Andre_Dragosch, the last comparable setup was March 2020 when BTC quickly rebounded and later rose roughly 6x by year-end 2020, underscoring the beta sensitivity to macro sentiment shifts (source: @Andre_Dragosch). According to @Andre_Dragosch, traders should track leading growth surveys and liquidity gauges to time entries around any sentiment reversal reflected by his model (source: @Andre_Dragosch).

According to @StockMKTNewz, US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that interest rate sensitive sectors are in recession, the broader economy is not at risk of recession, and she is confident about 2026 growth prospects (source: @StockMKTNewz). For traders, this soft-landing tone shifts focus to the policy-rate path and yields; monitor the US 2-year Treasury, the dollar index, and risk assets such as BTC and ETH for potential reactions to reduced near-term recession risk and a firmer long-term growth signal (source: @StockMKTNewz).

According to @CoinMarketCap, QCP Capital states financial markets are in a late-cycle phase and are not facing an immediate recession. Source: CoinMarketCap (Twitter), citing QCP Capital, Nov 20, 2025. QCP Capital adds that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly sensitive to broader macro shifts, signaling higher responsiveness to data like inflation, interest rates, and the US dollar. Source: CoinMarketCap (Twitter), citing QCP Capital, Nov 20, 2025.

According to @charliebilello, total U.S. jobs increased 0.8% year over year, the slowest pace since March 2021 based on BLS payroll data, source: @charliebilello on X; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics. He adds that over the past 50 years, this degree of labor-market weakness preceded a recession and a spike in the unemployment rate 100% of the time, source: @charliebilello on X. For traders, a cooling labor market raises the likelihood of easier policy given the Fed’s mandate to balance maximum employment and price stability, source: Federal Reserve Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. Historically, periods of slowing growth that coincide with falling real yields and a softer dollar have aligned with stronger risk-asset performance, and BTC and ETH have shown episodes of negative correlation to real yields and the DXY, source: Coin Metrics State of the Network; Kaiko Research cross-asset correlations; FRED real yield proxies and ICE U.S. Dollar Index. Monitor BLS labor reports alongside the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield and DXY as near-term drivers for crypto beta and liquidity conditions, source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE Data Indices.

According to @KobeissiLetter, 71% of U.S. consumers expect unemployment to rise over the next 12 months, marking the highest reading since the 1980s, having doubled in less than a year and now surpassing the 2008 peak (source: @KobeissiLetter). According to @KobeissiLetter, the perceived probability of job loss among consumers hit 23%, the second-highest in at least 15 years (source: @KobeissiLetter). According to @KobeissiLetter, such grim labor market sentiment has not been observed outside of a recession, indicating elevated macro downside risk that traders monitor closely (source: @KobeissiLetter). According to Coin Metrics, BTC and ETH tend to strengthen their correlation with equities during macro stress, implying potential volatility transmission into crypto when recession risk rises (source: Coin Metrics).

According to @DowdEdward, U.S. inflation is decelerating while a recession is brewing, layoffs are starting, and the credit cycle is rolling over, setting up a near-term deflation scare; source: @DowdEdward on X, Nov 7, 2025. He adds that even if deflation pressures emerge, price levels are unlikely to return to pre-Covid baselines, implying ongoing consumer and margin pressure; source: @DowdEdward on X, Nov 7, 2025. For traders, this framework elevates layoff trends and credit stress as key catalysts for risk assets and crypto volatility into 2025; source: @DowdEdward on X, Nov 7, 2025.

According to @CNBC, a resilient U.S. stock market is creating a wealth effect that supports consumer spending and jobs, helping keep the economy out of recession. Source: CNBC. For traders, the equity-driven cushion described by @CNBC lowers near-term recession risk and supports risk appetite and liquidity, so monitoring potential spillovers into crypto pricing and volumes is prudent. Source: CNBC.

According to @CNBC, historical market performance is often weak after rate cuts, particularly when the Federal Reserve cuts to stabilize a slowing economy, signaling late-cycle stress rather than a new bull trend for risk assets, which tempers near-term risk-on expectations for traders; source: CNBC. For crypto, cross-asset contagion risk is relevant because Bitcoin and equities became more correlated post-2020, meaning macro-driven equity drawdowns can transmit to BTC and ETH pricing during policy pivots; sources: IMF research (2022) and BIS analysis (2022).

According to nic__carter, despite widespread panic in April 2025 over new tariffs and fears of a recession, the SPY index rebounded strongly and recession risk significantly decreased (source: Twitter, @nic__carter, June 7, 2025). For traders, this rapid recovery highlights the resilience of US equities and the potential for overreaction-driven volatility. Crypto traders should note that such macroeconomic sentiment shifts can trigger short-term correlation spikes between equities and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, presenting both risk and arbitrage opportunities (source: Coin Metrics, April 2025). Staying alert to policy-driven market corrections remains crucial for both stock and crypto trading strategies.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the ISM Services PMI new orders index fell sharply by 5.9 points in May, reaching 46.4, marking its second-lowest level since 2020 and its lowest since the 2008 Financial Crisis when excluding the pandemic period (source: @KobeissiLetter, June 5, 2025). This significant downturn in both manufacturing and services demand signals rising recessionary risks, which historically trigger increased volatility and risk-off sentiment in traditional financial markets. For the cryptocurrency market, such macroeconomic weakness often results in heightened short-term volatility, as investors rebalance portfolios and seek alternative assets. Traders should monitor risk sentiment closely, as deteriorating economic data may prompt shifts into digital assets or intensified selling pressure depending on liquidity and broader market reactions.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump announced potential 25% tariffs on Apple (AAPL) and 50% tariffs on the EU, effective June 1st, coinciding with the US 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.60%. This sharp policy shift triggered a significant pullback in yields, reflecting renewed recession concerns. For crypto traders, heightened global trade tensions and recession fears may drive increased volatility and safe-haven demand for Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies, as investors seek alternatives to traditional equities and bonds (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 23, 2025).

According to Edward Dowd, the recent positive news regarding tariffs has likely reached its peak effect for SPX stock gains, signaling limited upside unless earnings accelerate or valuation multiples expand, which he views as unlikely given structural headwinds and recession risks (Source: Edward Dowd, Twitter, May 9, 2025). For traders, this suggests a potential double top formation is improbable, increasing caution for equity exposure. Crypto market participants should monitor SPX closely, as a stagnating US equities market could drive increased capital flows into digital assets seeking higher returns.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the ISM Manufacturing PMI index dropped to 48.7 in April 2025, marking the lowest reading since November 2024 and the second consecutive month of contraction (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 2, 2025). New orders rose slightly to 47.2 but stayed below the expansion threshold for a third month. For cryptocurrency traders, persistent manufacturing weakness signals rising recession risk and could drive short-term volatility in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins due to shifting risk sentiment and potential changes in Fed policy.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the S&P 500 fell more than 2% intraday as traders reacted to the latest Q1 GDP report, which signaled slowing economic growth and increased the perceived risk of a recession. This sharp decline triggered heightened volatility and risk-off sentiment across equities, prompting investors to reassess positions in anticipation of further downside. For active traders, these market moves are a signal to monitor support levels and consider hedging strategies as macroeconomic uncertainty rises (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, April 30, 2025).

According to @RhythmicAnalyst on Twitter, recent GDP and PCE data signal increasing recession risks for financial markets. The analysis highlights that Trump’s new tariffs are straining global trade flows, while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s delayed monetary response has limited economic stimulus options. Meanwhile, persistently high consumer credit usage, as shown in the latest Federal Reserve economic data, further pressures household balance sheets. Traders should monitor these macroeconomic indicators closely, as sustained negative trends in GDP growth and rising PCE inflation could trigger heightened market volatility and potential downturns in risk assets. (Source: @RhythmicAnalyst, April 30, 2025)

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 10-year note yield has briefly dropped below 4.00% for the first time since October 2024, as market participants are pricing in increased recession risk. This movement indicates a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets, which could influence cryptocurrency trading by affecting risk appetite and liquidity flows into digital assets.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the 10-year note yield dropped below 4% for the first time since October 2024 as markets anticipate increased recession risks. This movement in yields suggests investors are shifting towards safer assets, which could impact cryptocurrency markets by potentially reducing risk appetite.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the S&P 500 has decreased by 6.5% since its peak on February 19th, after experiencing a 10% drawdown in early March. Historically, if stocks drop another 5% on average within the next 150 days, it signals a recession in the US economy.